APHG

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

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What is the DTM? Why it matters How to apply Five Stages Country Examples Reflection

What is the DTM?

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) explains how and why population changes as a country develops economically. It tracks shifts in birth rates, death rates, and total population growth across stages of development.

Think of it as a timeline of development: from high birth & death rates to low ones, with population growth changing along the way.

Why It Matters

• Analyze how birth and death rates shift with development.
• Explain the link between population change and industrialization/urbanization.
• Predict demographic challenges like aging populations or labor shortages.
• Compare regions at different stages using data and reasoning.

How to Apply the Model

1. Identify which stage a country is in using demographic data or population pyramids.
2. Explain why it’s in that stage — consider economic, cultural, political, and health factors.
3. Predict future outcomes — challenges with education, jobs, aging, or immigration.
4. Support with real-world examples.

FRQ Mini-Framework

Define → Apply → Explain using the “because → therefore” reasoning model.

• Define the concept (e.g., falling death rates due to sanitation).
• Apply to a case study (e.g., “In Kenya…”).
• Explain the cause and effect relationship.

The Five Stages

Stage	Birth Rate	Death Rate	Population Growth	Common Traits	Examples
1. Pre-Industrial	Very high	Very high	Stable	Disease, famine, poor sanitation	None today
2. Early Industrial	High	Rapidly falling	Rapid growth	Improved sanitation & medicine	Nigeria, Afghanistan
3. Late Industrial	Falling	Falling	Slowing	Urbanization, women’s rights	India, Mexico
4. Post-Industrial	Low	Low	Stable	High life expectancy, service economies	U.S., France
5. Declining	Very low	Low	Negative	Aging population, immigration needs	Japan, Germany

Quick Country Examples

• Kenya (Stage 2): High fertility and falling mortality lead to rapid growth.
• United States (Stage 4): Low birth and death rates; focus on healthcare and aging support.
• Japan (Stage 5): Declining population due to very low fertility; pronatalist and immigration debates.

Reflection Questions

1. What factors cause birth and death rates to change as countries develop?
2. How do education and urbanization influence fertility?
3. What policies can address aging populations in Stage 5 countries?
4. How can migration affect a country’s stage in the DTM?